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From: http://www.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel01/sec5cius2000.htm
For Immediate Release
October 22, 2001
9 A. M. Eastern Time Washington D.C.
FBI National Press Office
Crime in the United States, 2000
Section V of Crime in the United States, 2000 presents an analysis
of motor vehicle theft and recovery in the United States for the
year 1999. The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS)
and National Crime Information Center (NCIC) data are used in
this study, which analyzes and tabulates motor vehicle theft and
recovery by day of the week, month of the year, and location of
the incident.
The results for both data sets (NIBRS and NCIC) show that by
the day of the week, Friday (15.69 percent for NIBRS and 14.97
percent for NCIC) and Saturday (16.13 percent for NIBRS and 14.24
percent for NCIC) are the two days with the highest frequency
of motor vehicle theft, and Monday (15.92 percent for NIBRS and
16.08 percent for NCIC) and Tuesday (15.74 percent for NIBRS and
16.42 percent for NCIC) are the days that show the highest recovery
rates. The overall recovery rates of 53.10 percent and 51.43 percent
for NIBRS and NCIC, respectively, exhibit striking similarities
between these two data systems. Although the collection and use
of NIBRS data in this study are limited to18 states (currently
22 states report NIBRS data), the rates at which cars are stolen
and recovered are similar to the rates in NCIC, which collects
data from the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. Territories.
This significant finding supports that NIBRS at its current level
of operation can be considered as a nationally representative
data set, at least in the area of motor vehicle theft. It also
confirms the reliability and validity of the NIBRS data.
Based on the NIBRS data, higher rates of motor vehicle theft
occur in the second half of the year than in the first half. The
higher rates of motor vehicle theft during the warmer summer months
may be attributable to the same "seasonal" effect associated
with other offenses. The fourth-quarter increase may be assigned
in part to the availability of new model automobiles and in part
to the holiday season. Most of the vehicles are recovered, if
they are ever recovered,in the same months in which they were
stolen. In addition to day of the week and month of the year,
location of the motor vehicle theft incident is another factor
that influences the rate of motor vehicle theft. The study shows
that most of the incidents took place at such locations as residence/home
(35.31 percent), parking lot/garage (22.75 percent), and highway/road/alley
(17.96 percent).
The survival analysis model employed in this study reveals the
patterns and chance of recovering the stolen cars based on the
number of days elapsed since the theft incident. Based on the
NIBRS data used in the analysis, 57.08 percent of the stolen motor
vehicles are recovered in the first day and 79.43 percent are
recovered during the first six days, which indicates that the
first few days after the theft are critical in recovering the
stolen vehicles. The longer the vehicle is in the possession of
the criminals, the less the chance of recovery.
In terms of clearance, the study demonstrates that the age group
between 12 to 17 has the largest number of motor vehicle theft
arrests for both sexes and all races. The next highest age group
arrested involves people between 18 and 24 years old. The total
percentage of clearance for recovered motor vehicles is only 17.15
percent. The low rate of clearance can be attributed to the nature
of the crime, its volume, and the degree of difficulty in solving
this particular crime.
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